The pandemic of the unvaccinated in Italy

from Simona Ravizza, Fiorenza Sarzanini

The dossier: no immunized between the ages of 12 and 59 ended up in intensive care. The category most at risk is the over 60s

Those who are not vaccinated are likely to get infected 6 times more than those who are vaccinated if they are under 39 and about 4 times more from 40 and older. this analysis by the Higher Institute of Health carried out by calculating the incidence of new positives from Covid 19 on 100 thousand inhabitants to have convinced the government of the need to give a new push to the campaign run by General Francesco Paolo Figliuolo. Moving on a double track: trying to persuade the millions of Italians still reluctant to get immunized and accelerate on the third dose. Data updated to 24 October they do not take into account the surge recorded in the last few days, but already make it possible to identify in which sectors and age groups it is necessary to intervene with greater urgency. Taking into account that the data of other countries further on in the administration, first of all Israel, show that after a few months the effect of the vaccines begins to wane and therefore it is necessary to program thea terza dose, as is already being done in Italy with those over 60 years old.

In Germany – where only 66.8% of the inhabitants received a double dose – Health Minister Jens Spahn called for restrictive measures to cope to the pandemic of the unvaccinated that huge. In Italy the situation is still under control, the number of places occupied in the medical areas and in intensive care remains below the critical level. But the epidemiological curve has started to rise again and the government tries to stop the virus rush before the cold arrives and above all the December holiday period when the opportunities for socializing and, therefore, for contagion are greater.

It does this by examining the updated data every week. Today’s bulletin will be decisive in understanding how fast the curve is rising, certainly the top management of the Institute will reiterate the need to maintain high attention and apply and comply with recommended measures and behaviors to limit the further increase in viral circulation.

The analysis on the protection of the vaccine is carried out on the basis ofincidence per 100 thousand inhabitants: how many immunized people get infected, are hospitalized or end up in intensive care. The same calculation is then made for the unvaccinated. And it shows how between 12 and 59 years in resuscitation no vaccinated is finished and the percentages of hospitalized remain very low. In the age group between 60 and 79 years it emerges that the vaccine continues to protect almost totally from hospitalization in intensive care. And in the medical area, as had already emerged in previous ones report, usually those who already suffer from other diseases are hospitalized.

According to the latest bulletin of‘Higher Institute of Health this is the situation in the period from 24 September to 24 October last: In the age group between 12 and 39 years in a month there were 404 new infected among the unvaccinated against 70 among the vaccinated; 13 people were admitted to the medical area against 0.7; in intensive care it was 0.75 against zero. In the age group between 40 and 59 years, among the newly infected 354 were no vax while 89 were immunized; in the medical area the ratio was 28 against 1.3: in intensive care 3 against zero. In the age group between 60 and 79 years: 300 new infected people who were not immunized and 77 vaccinated ones; 65 no vax were hospitalized against 5 in the medical area; 12 versus 0.5 in intensive care. Among the over 80s 388 unvaccinated infected people, 95 immunized ones; 160 to 21 ended up in the hospital; in intensive care 8 vs 1. The incidence of deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants shows that between 60 and 79 years there were 16 victims among the unvaccinated against 1 of those who took two doses, while for the over 80 the deaths among those who were not immunized were 93, only 8 among those who had completed the cycle .

Translated into risk, these numbers mean that the unvaccinated are likely to be infected 4 to 6 times more, to be hospitalized 20 times more up to 59 years, then about 12 times from the age of 60 and up, and 8 times if they are over 80. As for intensive care, non-immunized people risk 30 times more up to 59 years, 21 times more between 60 and 79 years, 8 times more for those over 80. These data are comparable to those already recorded in recent weeks. , proving that for the moment the effectiveness of vaccines even after some time remains in any case very high. In the last month 2,836 unvaccinated versus 1,814 vaccinated with two doses ended up in hospital. On a general level, therefore, the relationship still all to the advantage of those who are immunized: out of 5 hospitalized, three are without vaccine against the two who did. For intensive care there were 331 unvaccinated and 128 vaccinated. Here the distance is even greater: in resuscitation more than two out of three patients have not received vaccination against Covid.

The constant observation of the numbers related to the pandemic has already shown how in the long run absolute numbers have a deceptive effect: the more the protected population, the greater the number of those who can end up in hospital even with the two doses.

what is defined vaccine paradox. It happens to us already today for infections: between the over 80 and the 60-79 year olds, the percentage of vaccinated people is decidedly high, respectively at 92.7% and 87.4%: in both cases, in absolute numbers, infections are higher among those who took the two doses than those without (4,033 against 941 and 9,175 against 4,207). And now tra i 40-59 enni, immunized at 76.5%, the spread of the infection always in similar absolute data: 12,623 vaccinated against 12,266 no.

We must therefore carry out the percentages on the reference audiences: citizens vaccinated with a full cycle are 41 million 915,257, no vax 9 million 231,487. the percentage of newly infected among those who are not immunized equal at 0.37%, among those immunized equal to 0,08%.

November 5, 2021 (change November 5, 2021 | 07:53)

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The pandemic of the unvaccinated in Italy